17th March Weekly Analysis

by Oz

•

March 24, 2025

•

2 min read

Below is a breakdown and comparative analysis of the three weekly candles from 3rd to 17th March 2025

Buy/Sell Ratio: 97:100 → More sellers than buyers
Delta Volume: -229M → Heavy selling pressure
Total Volume: 5.5B → High interest in trading activity
POC: Below → Price closed below the volume point of control
Open Interest: Close → OI positions were being reduced
Candle Type: Big Red
Price: $80,601 (Close lower than previous week)
Interpretation:
This week likely marked a local bottom due to strong selling activity (negative delta), high volume (capitulation-style), and reduced OI (closing positions). This suggests longs were stopped out and shorts may have begun taking profit.

Buy/Sell Ratio: 106:100 → Shift to buy-side strength
Delta Volume: -30M → Still slightly net selling, but much smaller
Total Volume: 3.65B → Volume significantly dropped (seller exhaustion)
POC: Above → Price reclaimed control zone
Open Interest: Close → Consolidation with flat positioning
Candle Type: Spinning Top (White)
Price: $82,520
Interpretation:
This was a transition week. Price formed an indecision candle after the strong red drop, with buyers regaining slight control. The significantly lower negative delta hints at sellers losing steam, while volume reduction implies cooling volatility. Buyers may be stepping in cautiously.

Buy/Sell Ratio: 106:100 (same as week prior)
Delta Volume: +19M → Net buying returns
Total Volume: 2.56B → Even lower volume → signs of consolidation
POC: Above → Price closing above point of control (bullish bias)
Open Interest: New → Fresh positions being opened (likely longs)
Candle Type: Spinning Top (White)
Price: $86,038
Interpretation:
Strong follow-up from prior week's indecision candle. Net buying confirms buyers are now slightly in control, and new open interest supports this. However, the candle still reflects uncertainty, meaning the breakout is not confirmed yet. If follow-through continues into next week, a leg higher is likely.

Week	Delta Volume	Volume (B)	OI	Candle	Sentiment Shift
03/03/2025	-229M	5.5	Close	Big Red	Panic selling / Capitulation
10/03/2025	-30M	3.65	Close	Spinning Top	Seller exhaustion, stabilisation
17/03/2025	+19M	2.56	New	Spinning Top	Net buyer return, soft accumulation

Delta flipped negative → positive over 3 weeks
Volume declining → classic sign of seller exhaustion
Open interest went from closing to new positions → signals fresh interest from bulls
Price reclaiming Point of Control
Back-to-back spinning tops with positive delta → indecision leaning bullish

60–70% probability of upward continuation toward next resistance or liquidity zones. But it needs to be confirmed by:

If those fail and price stalls, potential rejection wick or trap setup becomes possible.

Trigger Zone	Price Level	Why It Matters
Resistance 1	$86,500 – $87,000	Just above this week’s high, where price got capped. A close above = breakout.
Resistance 2	$88,500 – $89,000	Last major local top zone. Strong profit-taking likely here.
Support 1	$82,000 – $82,500	Minor short-term demand zone. Breakdown here negates spinning top recovery thesis.
Support 2	$80,000 – $80,500	Weekly close from the Big Red candle (03/03). Losing this confirms reversal.
Critical Support	$76,500 – $77,000	Below this, risk of breakdown toward $70K increases sharply.

✅ Bullish trigger: Weekly close above $87,000 = high probability of continued upside toward $89K–$92K.
⚠️ Neutral trigger: Sideways ranging between $82K–$86K = choppy zone, no clear trend confirmation.
🔻 Bearish trigger: Breakdown and close below $80,000 = opens up revisit of $76K and invalidates bottom thesis.