Truflation isn’t waiting for the Fed — and neither are markets. While Powell continues to talk about being “data dependent,” real-time inflation metrics are already flashing something far more immediate: disinflation is here. And it’s accelerating. Truflation currently shows inflation at just 1.3%, while the Fed clings to rates above 4.3%. The longer they wait, the more likely the correction comes not from inflation but from overshooting into a hard landing.
Real Inflation Is Dropping — Fast
The Federal Reserve continues to base policy decisions on CPI — a lagging, backward-looking dataset. As of now, CPI sits at 2.8%. On paper, that seems manageable. But it’s built using data that doesn’t reflect current consumer activity. Shelter costs, which make up a third of the CPI calculation, are still driven by outdated lease data. By the time the official CPI adjusts to what’s actually happening in the economy, the markets have already moved.
Truflation cuts through the delay. It tracks real-time pricing data, with no lag, no smoothing, and no massaging of numbers. It shows inflation at 1.3% — a figure that suggests not just disinflation, but outright policy over-tightening if rates stay where they are. The Fed is sitting on 300+ basis points of real interest rate pressure while pretending it’s still fighting inflation. That’s not balance — that’s risk.
April 10 CPI: The Critical Print
The next CPI report lands on April 10, with consensus expecting a number close to 2.9%. But if CPI undercuts expectations — even by a few tenths — the repricing could begin quickly.
Markets are already looking past the Fed’s rhetoric. Traders are eyeing the drop in real inflation, with bets increasing that a cut could come sooner than expected. If the CPI number comes in closer to 2.6% or below, it would confirm what Truflation has already shown: inflation is not only cooling — it’s done.
A downside CPI surprise would likely trigger:
- A surge in cut expectations
- A decline in the U.S. dollar
- A broad rotation into risk assets, led by Bitcoin and high-beta equities
Markets Are Already Positioning
Bond yields are starting to turn. Gold has been on a tear. Bitcoin continues to hold its bid despite the overhang of macro uncertainty. These aren’t random moves. They reflect early positioning from investors who see what’s happening: inflation is dropping faster than policymakers are willing to admit.
There’s also the credibility gap. The Fed has spent the last 18 months hammering home its inflation-fighting credentials. Now, as data shifts, it risks being caught flat-footed. This is no victory lap. It’s the uncomfortable comedown from tightening into a weakening economy.
This Is Overshoot — Not a Soft Landing
The narrative some are clinging to — that inflation has been defeated and the economy is gliding to a soft landing — misses the key point. This isn’t a clean deceleration. It’s demand destruction.
Truflation’s numbers suggest the Fed has already gone too far. Real Fed Funds sit at 4.33% against real-time inflation at 1.3%. That’s more than 300 basis points of policy pressure still applied to an economy already showing signs of slowdown. Wage growth is cooling. Retail data is weakening. Manufacturing has stalled.
If the Fed insists on waiting for CPI to tell them what Truflation is already screaming, they’ll be forced to cut not as a proactive signal — but as a reaction to something breaking.
Conclusion
The writing is on the wall. Truflation has already moved. CPI is slowly catching up. The Fed is still holding on to yesterday’s fight. And yet, the markets are preparing. Bitcoin, bonds, and gold are all signalling the same thing: a shift is coming.
If April’s CPI confirms the downtrend, it will remove the last excuse for delay. At that point, the pivot is no longer speculation — it’s ignition.
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