The last three weeks show a clear transition from a potential local bottom to early signs of recovery. Let's break them down:

šŸ“Š Weekly Comparison Analysis (24/02/2025 - 10/03/2025)

Metric24/02/202503/03/202510/03/2025Interpretation
Buy/Sell Ratio89:10097:100106:100Buyers started weak but gained control in Week 3.
Delta Volume-535M-229M-30MSelling pressure decreasing week over week, suggesting seller exhaustion.
Total Volume (B)5.69B5.5B3.65BVolume dropped sharply in Week 3 ā†’ lower participation, possible reversal brewing.
POC (Point of Control)AboveBelowAboveSellers controlled Week 2, but buyers regained control in Week 3.
Weekly Closing Price$94,248$80,601$82,520Large price drop in Week 2, but Week 3 showed stability and a slight rebound.
Open InterestClosedClosedClosedMarket is in profit-taking mode, reducing speculative leverage.
Candlestick PatternLong Lower ShadowBig RedSpinning Top WhiteA reversal attempt failed in Week 2, but Week 3 indecision suggests a turning point.
Candle ColorRedRedGreenFirst two weeks were bearish, but Week 3 flipped bullish.

šŸ” Key Observations

1ļøāƒ£ Seller Exhaustion & Buy-Side Interest Increasing

  • Week 1: Heavy selling (-535M delta), long lower wick shows demand at lows.
  • Week 2: Another major sell-off (-229M delta), but less aggressive than Week 1.
  • Week 3: Minimal selling (-30M delta) & buyers outpaced sellers (106:100) ā†’ Shift in market sentiment.

2ļøāƒ£ Volume Drop Suggests Price Stability

  • Week 1: 5.69B ā†’ Week 2: 5.5B ā†’ Week 3: 3.65B
  • Week 3ā€™s significant drop in volume means market participants are hesitant ā†’ Often precedes a trend shift.

3ļøāƒ£ POC Shift Shows Market Rebalancing

  • Week 1: POC Above ā†’ Buyers had some control
  • Week 2: POC Below ā†’ Sellers took full control
  • Week 3: POC Above Again ā†’ Buyers fighting back

4ļøāƒ£ Candlestick Patterns & Structure Favour a Short-Term Rebound

  • Week 1: Long lower shadow ā†’ Buyers defended lows, but selling pressure dominated.
  • Week 2: Big Red ā†’ Continuation of the downtrend, but selling pressure was reduced.
  • Week 3: Spinning Top White ā†’ Market indecision, but green candle suggests a shift toward bulls.

šŸ“ˆ Possible Next Week Predictions

ScenarioProbabilityWhat to Look For
Short-Term Rebound (55%) šŸ“ˆMost likelyWatch if price holds above $82,000 and volume starts increasing. A push towards $84,000 - $85,000 is expected.
Sideways Consolidation (30%) āøModerate chanceIf volume stays low, expect range-bound movement between $81,500 - $83,500. Market may wait for a catalyst.
Further Decline (15%) šŸ“‰UnlikelyIf new selling pressure emerges, price could retest $80,000. This scenario needs a resurgence in volume & OI closing negatively.

Key Levels to Watch Next Week

  • $81,500 - $80,000 ā†’ Bearish Breakdown Zone (If price dips below, sellers regain control).
  • $84,500 - $85,000 ā†’ Bullish Reversal Confirmation (Needs volume & rising OI to sustain).
  • Open Interest Reopening? ā†’ If new OI comes in, it must favor longs for continuation upwards.

šŸ“¢ Final Thoughts:

  • Sellers are clearly exhausted, and buyers are attempting a turnaround.
  • A bounce is favoured, but bulls must reclaim $85,000+ for true confirmation.